$ES_F $GC_F 2-24-10

24 02 2010

Yesterdays action left us with a classic long liquidation “b” profile on the Market Profile chart.  Today we could see exploration back up into and possibly through yesterday’s range, or we could see further selling, or both.   The 1087.50 naked VPOC is an obvious magnet to the downside.


Stalking a good short entry in gold.  Now that the key 1100 level has been breached, I’m looking for a strong move to the downside.  Will be watching for a pop up to the 1111 area for an ideal entry.  1107 and 1099 are also possible entry levels.  First target is 1080.


2-23-10 am outlook : $ES_F GC_F $JY_F

23 02 2010

The markets are hovering around many key pivot levels waiting for an indication of which way we head next.  The Consumer Confidence # could be a tipping point today, but I suspect GDP on Friday will have greater impact.  I will be focusing on very short term plays until a clear direction emmerges.


A bounce up into the 1125 area is still a good possibility.  A naked VPOC at 1113.50 is an obvious magnet as well as a significant LVN at 11124-11125.

To the downside, there is major support in the 1094-1097 range.  If we can get through that area, 1090 and 1085 are the next likely support levels.

If we see another choppy day, 1103.75 to 1111.50 is the most obvious range.


Gold apears to be rolling over.  Looking to short gold in the 1120-1122 range.  Target 1100.


Shorting the Yen at current levels mentioned yesterday,  1.1040. Trendline resistance since 2/4/10 is providing a good backstop.

am outlook: $ES_F $GC_F $JY_F

22 02 2010

It appears that we are in for another interesting week in the markets.


We closed last week at the 61.8% retracement of the move down from 2-19 so at least a short-term pullback is possible.  In addition, there was relatively little volume in the 1075-1095 area on the way up last week, so the market may need to spend some more time filling in that range.

To the upside, 1125-26 could provide significant resistance.  My expectation is that we see an attempt to auction higher but that attempt will lose steam and we will rotate lower to at least test the 1100 level and possibly 1080.


I’m looking for a bounce in gold in the 1113-1116 area up into the 1135-1140 range.  I’m stalking a good swing entry on the short side in this zone.  From there, a test of 1100 seems possible.


The Yen could be poised for a nice drop from the 1.10 area.  Will watch the Dollar and equities for confirmation.

AM Outlook: $ES_F $GC_F $EURUSD

12 02 2010

It appears that we will be opening with a gap down into the 1067-1070 area.  I expect another volatile day with the continued uncertainty surrounding the debt situation.  I will be ready for strong movement either direction depending on how the news effects the markets.

The 1050 and 1056 levels are possible to the downside.  On the upside, the gap-fill 1096.50 is the most obvious magnet.  Barring a strong move to either extreme, I expect action to remain in the 1060-1075 range.

Gold continues to consolidate in the 1,075-1,100 range.  I’m looking for a move above 1,100 and expecting it to fizzle somewhere below 1,111 for a potential swing short entry.

The Euro will likely be the currency in play again today.  The range between 1.3550 and 1.3750 should remain intact.  I am anticipating a close around 1.3650.


11 02 2010

Overnight the S&P has stayed in a tight range around the key 1067 area, where we have been stuck for the last two days.  The market is in a holding pattern waiting for word of resolution in the situation with Greece.

Today I expect a continuation of the volatility we’ve been seeing, and I suspect that price will try to find it’s way upward into the lower volume area around 1075.  The 1060 area could provide strong support.  The 1085-1087 area could provide resistance, although the gap at 1094 has yet to be filled and could act like a magnet if the market starts to head in that direction.

Gold appears to be working it’s way back to the downward trendline on the daily chart.  Stalking a short in the $1,100-$1,005 area.

The Euro will likely be the currency in play today as the world waits to see what is going to happen with Greece.  With German GDP tomorrow I expect a range-bound day around the 1.3750 area, but we could see a strong breakout if the news establishes something concrete with the Greek situation.  I expect to see some kind of big move before the US long-weekend.

day one

11 02 2010


this is my first post.  i’m looking forward to contributing to this blog to focus my thoughts, improve my trading and to hopefully help some other folks improve their trading.  for now, i am just learning how to create a blog, so I will start by simply posting this…

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